A bad idea

If they follow the militaristic model of turkey…then they will falter. But another alternative is to follow the US model. We need a presidential form of government…cause we need a functional executive. Our parliament in the near future is not going to be functional due to boycotts etc. But they should furthermore create other centers of power. Central bank should be independent and judiciary should be independent. Ditto for state media. Then we will have American style checks and balances. Strong exectuieve is needed and neccessary…but it needs to be tempered with checks. US also has an NSC. Army has played a pivotal role in every crisis and every development in our country. It also remains the only professional world class unit of the government largely uneffected by rampant corruption ( notice I didn’t say no corruption…and the works of ministers who were army men don’t count). Army is also the only force able to take on crush hoodlums, terrorists and rabble rousers. As of now it is the only armed wing of the state that retains some deterrent power. So if they can be given a constitutional role and that prevents coups ..i’d welcome it. I say ‘minus three”…as ershad has been pushed out as well is a good formula. But something needs to be done about the Jamatis as well. We simply need a more educated, global minded leaders on the civilian side. We can’t have a dinosaur like Saifur Rahman/Kibria etc. heading the finance ministry.

I don’t think strong executive was Bangladesh’s main problem in the last 16 years. Bangladeshi Prime Ministers enjoyed more executive power than any other elected head of government anywhere.

I don’t think weak executive was Bangladesh’s main problem in the last 16 years. Bangladeshi Prime Ministers enjoyed more executive power than any other elected head of government anywhere. We don’t need to strengthen the executive branch of the government, We need to strengthen the legislative and judiciary branches.

One way to strengthen the legislative is to properly institute the select committees. Further, key executive appointments - home minister for example - should be vetted by the parliamentary committees (I think Jalal Alamgirh has written about this in some blog in the past 6 months). This is a feature of the American system that we should adopt readily.

Also, all development tasks, reliefs and local government responsibilities should be taken away from the MPs. These responsibilities should reside with elected local governments.

Anthony,

Good points. I agree with some. Local government devolution of development tasks seems fine IF 1. There are elected local government representatives…which at the moment…doesn’t exist. 2. There is local government ability for independent finances…otherwise its meaningless.
Making the committees etc. effective sounds like a good idea in theory. But…who will make the leaders and MPs actually show up and do what they’re supposed to do? Don’t forget their past record for the last 17 years or so.

I think our government is weak and disfunctional at all branches. I agree there needs to be an independent judiciary. Legislature needs to learn, act and perform like a legislature of a civilized country..which in the past they haven’t. A Bicameral legislature is also an idea to ponder about. A Senate can be created where the members will have limited oversight power and will be selected/nominated by the respected parties according to their majority in the elected house. Members of this house must be technocrats and free from any criminal or civil convictions. Everytime caretaker government comes suddenly 20-25 highly qualified, honest beyond question, competent people are found…and people sigh in relief. Why not bring that same quality people into a higher house where they can permanently contribute to the welfare of the country? We cannot and I repeat cannot get that quality of people elected in our country through mass elections because ours remain a poor uneducated country where masses can be swayed by a variety of means…not necessarily illegal..but duboius. We have to remember it is the People’s REPUBLIC of Bangladesh …not people’s democracy of Bangladesh. Republic must be preserved at all cost…whatever it may be.

As I already mentioned Bangladesh Bank also needs to be fully autonomous arm of the government. Then you’ll have true checks and balances and the whole “khelapi rin” for a retainer business at banks will come to an end.

President and primeminister needs to share executive power. President acting kindda like a CEO…directly elected…and supreme commander of armed forces…plus head of the soon to be NSC. Priminister more like a COO …operational head of the government on all day to day issues, head of the majority in the parliament. That way the long tern strategic/security intrests of the state can be protected by the president and NSC adding a degree of stability which is quintessential for development and investment…while the government can make and implement policy aimed at one and one objective only…economic and social development.

Here is a write up on today’s Daily Star…which is pertinent to my arguments in support of Central Bank Indendence:
http://www.thedailystar.net/2007/07/09/d707091501131.htm

Syed,

I agree with almost everything else you said, but two points seem troublesome:

1) If you can divide the people on “dubious” rather than “illegal” grounds, by all means initiate reform that makes those dubious ones illegal. Why adopt such an elitist, Platonic Republic model over a much more robust-if-properly-implemented democratic model?

2) If there is a conflict between the economic and social development objectives (as defined by the PM’s office) and the strategic/security interests of the state (as defined by the President and the soon-to-be-formed NSC), how should that be resolved?

Asif,

1) I don’t want to parse words here, but you understand human mind is ingenious. There is no way you can make a law that will make the influence of money to buy votes go away in a poor country. Even in a rich developed country like the US interests groups have foiled all attempts at “campaign finance reform ” so far. So there needs to be democracy..I don’t disagree but there also needs to be a republic above all. I support the Platonic model cause that is the only model that has been proven effective across time and across culture …with various adaptations. Every successful country in the world is a republic these days..and I mean a republic not a democracy per se…this includes all the G-10 countries except UK. Yes, UK is an exception…but remember it is a steadily declining power since it lost the empire. We should look at aspiring…rising powers and why they are rising for guidance, not to decaying empires still resting on past imperial glory. EU as a whole is a REPUBLIC. The founding fathers of America, French Republicans, De Tocqueville, Leo strauss…every theorist worth his/her name supports a republic for a reason. The reason is…simple..at the heart of democracy is a conflict with the foundation of free market economy (neccessary for peaceful economic development). An open society allows some to own more than others legally..BUT gives all the same legal right through a democracy to share public wealth. Contributers to the state coffers or the state enterprise, however, are not equal contributors. So in effect you can have a “let’s vote ourselves to other people’s property” syndrome. This sort of populist agenda are adopted by shrewd opportunistic politicians everywhere…but especially in a poor, underdeveloped and undereducated society. Therefore the need for a republican protection of the interest of the property holders from the reigns of free democracy to save capitalism /market economy from it. That is why US slowly gave more freedom over time (decades…although they pretend as if they were a full fledged democracy from day one) and became more democratic as it developed. Same with, Japan, China, Russia, Germany and France in their own unique context. There is absolutely no reason to think that we will succeed in a different path where all else has failed. Think why the south east asian countries (ASEAN)…starting with singapore are on the cusp of full developed status within a decade whereas our nieghbour “mighty” India, the so called world’s largest democracy, is but a sea of poverty with a few slave ships of “programmers” floating on it:-)

2. If there is a conflict between the two centers…it can be an issue of vote within the NSC, of which the prime minister will be a member as well. In extreme case the president can dismiss the primeminister and ask the majority party to elect a new leader in parliament. If they fail or refuse to do so…then he can call early elections. Similarly Parliament should be able to impeach a president with approval of both houses for crimes befitting such action. In that case the VP(leader of the upper house) will be the acting president until the next president is elected directly by the people.

3. Members of parliament should be allowed to vote across party lines on specific issues as they deem fit. They should not be forced to follow party line on all bills.

Syed,

I like the point you are making, and I understand that development towards a democracy can be slow. But frankly you are cherry-picking your examples to fit your theory. Some of them don’t even fit. Firstly, Japan has a pretty solid democratic tradition without being a republic.

Secondly, “our nieghbour “mighty” India, the so called world’s largest democracy, is but a sea of poverty with a few slave ships of “programmers” floating on it”. I could say the same about China with its “republic”.

Yes, I know that the US was not a democracy from day one. But where does it say that we have to follow the US path to development? Is there some sort of hidden rulebook of political development that I wasn’t aware of?

Yes there is a rulebook of political development …secret it may not be. This rule book is born out of human experience across time and culture as I already mentioned.

Japan never had a multi party democracy and still doesn’t. It is a disguised one party rule with different factions ruling it since WWII. Before that need I mention? Emperor remains extremely strong…and there is an selected /indirectly elected upper house. So yeah it is a republic. Since Mieji Restoration…they have been on their own unique journey of political development designed to make Japan a republic…albiet with its own characteristics.

I am sorry…if you’re still comparing China with India like Indian clowns or journalist idiots then you I have nothing to say. China has industrial capacity and infrastructure second only to the US. It has better social and educational stats than india by almost 7:1. It is the world’s factory- it has a dozen ports that’re world class and a dozen airports that are the same. On top of it it has a 1.3 trillion dollar and growing foreign currency reserve. ..while your beloved india is sinking in public sector budget deficit and balance of payment imbalance. So please…and I mean please stop comparing a medium developed country like China with about $5000 per capita GDP with a poor destitute country like India with 800-1000 per capita just cause they both have a billion people in them…and some dumb duck invented the name “Chindia”. There is no such region just as there is no “Amerixico” region:-)

Syed,

Before you really start to get insulting, please read this: http://dhakashohor.blogspot.com/2007/07/confessions-of-raw-agent.html Just for future reference, “your beloved India”-like language will not be tolerated by me.

I’m sorry I’m not impressed by your figures at all. There was no question of comparing China’s economic performance with India’s. China is clearly the winner there. What I said still stands: that industrial development in both China and India have failed to reach the majority of the people. “It has better social and educational stats than india by almost 7:1.” What stats are these? Absolute or per capita?

One more repeat warning. Next time someone says something positive about India, please do not give them the knee-jerk reaction. Over and out!

Mate listen…you’re dealing with a different breed here…not your jamati inspired paranoid BD citizen then you moaned about in your write up:-)

I was refering to the education stats…as in number of university graduates between china and india. I gave you the per capita. the 7:1 is the human capital ration if you wanna call it that…number of Phds and college graduates. Also look at the health care conditions…as in infant mortality etc. between the two countries.

I agree industrial development in China has yet failed to reach the masses cause it is still export driven designed to earn dollars. But as the Yuan appreciates and dollar sinks the domestic market will gain in prominence. Read writings by one Henry C.K Liu. This gentleman is very well connected with the Chinese elite. So then you’ll see significant expansion of domestic consumer credit availibility and with it quality of life. for the masses. For comparison please read America in the 18 century..see how similar it was to today’s China. They have managed so far to keep 1.3 billion people fed and fed well. Indians have failed to do that in their “democratic” country.

Thi sis not a knee jerk reaction. I agree with your blog. I have serious doubts about India’s ability to match ether its bluster or paranoid imaginations of BD hawks. And I agree with you…yes to port (so long as its managed by singapore or dubai port authority), yes to electricity export but not gas export ( cause the former creates job in our country), yes to transit so long as it gives us free access to the indian north east and nepal, bhutan, yunan, tibet in return as well.

Now a warning…do not threaten me as I am immune to them. Expect hard fought verbal jousts but also appreciation of any good idea you present:-)

Well, I’m glad I’m dealing with a different breed here and your post shows it. That was not a threat, but a statement of purpose and it still stands. So none of this “beloved India” bullshit. If I approve of George Bush’s stance on immigration, it doesn’t make me a “Bushie” overnight. Deal with my statements as you’ve had in your last post and I’m up for your verbal jousts. Unwarranted comments about what is “beloved” to me or otherwise are best kept out of it.

I’ll have a look at the figures and get back to you when I have the chance. China might be growing, but I have serious doubts about whether that will reach the masses without political liberalization. Despite India’s democracy, it is growing fast and your characterization of it as being only in the software industry is wrong. In our lifetimes, I suppose we’ll have living proof as to whether democracy has really helped or hindered India. The case is by no means as conclusive as you point to be.

1. Syed: I support the Platonic model cause that is the only model that has been proven effective across time and across culture

Have you guys actually read Plato’s Republic? The Greek city that came closest to Plato’s idealist one was Spartacus, and the modern state that remotely resembled it was the 3rd Reich.

2. Comparing India and China

China’s per capita income may be higher than India’s in 2007, but in the three decades before liberalisation, tens of millions died in China during the cultural revolution and the great leap forward, whereas nothing like that happened in India. And the reason for this is India’s democracy.

Yes please do look at the figures …I believe to an impartial mind they’re self-evident. I never said nor did the chinese government that they will not have political liberalization. They surely will. But they will first develop the economy and the human capital of the country. Idea is…if we’re to have a democracy or rule of the people then the people msut be worthy of rulership. Otherwise you get Dubya or worse. China is still a large developing country although they’re rapidly moving towards a “middle-income status” There is a uniquely Chinese political concept called comprehensive national power…every year they rank countries on it to assess their rank. It is one of the drivers of Chinese foreign policy. I think it is a smarter iteration of Geo-strategy of the past era.

As for India…oh well where do we start…I’ll make a chart for you..it’ll be easy:

Dream: India is growing at 7-8% a year and soon will reach double digit growth as they start spending on improving infrastructure.

Reality: Given its size India will need over 200 billion dollars to bring its infrastructure to ASEAN/China level forget about US/EU/Persian Gulf level. This is 200 billion dollar they don’t have or no one is willing to invest in cause infrastructures have low return on capital as FDI. Plus the technical construction capability is not present in india…despite the IITs…but for domestic swadeshi colored politics they will have to give these contracts to local tender maharajas.

Dream: India will be a “shooperpavar” in 2020.

Reality: India’s national power projection is primarily based on its naval force like their colonial master Britain and its derivative US. Problem is only places it can use the navy to project power is in Malacca straights or Persian gulf. Both seem unlikely. Pakistan maintains a very effective assymetric parity with india. China can squash them like a bug. Bangaldesh will be a guerilla warfare nightmare for them…especially in light of the “shooperpavar” armed forces’s performance in Srilanka. It lacks the MAIN critical factor to win wars…energy independence. Despite sad domestic attempts to produce arms…like all almost all its civilian manufacture their hardware remains very dodgy.

Dream: India will be developed economy by 2050.

Reality: Every year many more poor mouths are born in India than are yanked out of poverty. To reverse the situation will require massive public spending…which its wasteful budget cannot permit (already in deficit). Making a few thousand IIt engineers …building a few corporate slave paradises won’t change this dismal situation. It requires industries that employ millions of people. Kindly name me one industry that can create massive employment in which India …being enerfgy deficient for at least 20 more years…has a snowball in hells chance of being a world dominator. Please don’t tell me about “service’ economy…it is only for a few babus…has only secondary impact on the masses. WHile indians dream of a sumptous meal some day…the Chinese and the ASEAN countries have had their lunch already. GCC is forming another huge economic block from 2010…expect this cash loaded block to take away a lot of investments and human capital from india as well. For verification kindly compare the financial market size and liquidity of Hangsang, Shaghai, Singapore, Dubai and Riyadh exchanges with your good old BSE mumbai. The differences may shock you. Dreaming and talking big on propaganda blog sites, websites and cable channels is one thing. Showing wealth in bolly wood movies is one thing. Delivering it in reality is another. Ship I believe has left the port. They will have to wait for the next ship if any ever comes.